How sloppy is the October 2026 Steam Next Fest

Hi, it is Steam Next Fest. This blog post was written on Wednesday October 21st at 10AM PT and we are a couple days into the October Steam Next Fest 2026 (from here on out referred to just as SNF).
The first Wednesday of SNF is typically the day Valve switches the algorithm from “all games get a
baseline of visibility
” (see footnote about this) to “top performing games get visibility.”
These are my initial thoughts on what I saw in the first two days.
Also I updated my Steam Next Fest tracking tool so you can input your Steam Next Fest traffic and wishlist data and it will tell you how well your game compares. The comparison graphs are based on real data submitted from February and June 2026 Steam Next Fests.
Track your Steam Next Fest Progress
Sloppiest Fest
This was the big one. 7,240 games in October 2026 Steam Next Fest (**Footnote**). The number of participants jumped 65.2% over the last one.
Here is a history of Steam Next Fest. Data provided by this
great blog post from GameDiscoverCo.
Steam Next Fest has grown 8x since June 2023
Games participating in each Steam Next Fest edition
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Jun 2023: 887 games
887
Jun 2023
Oct 2023: 972 games
972
Oct 2023
Feb 2024: 1,123 games
1,123
Feb 2024
Jun 2024: 1,805 games
1,805
Jun 2024
Oct 2024: 3,008 games
3,008
Oct 2024
Feb 2025: 2,337 games
2,337
Feb 2025
Jun 2025: 2,645 games
2,645
Jun 2025
Oct 2025: 2,963 games
2,963
Oct 2025
Feb 2026: 3,536 games
3,536
Feb 2026
Jun 2026: 4,382 games
4,382
Jun 2026
Oct 2026: 7,240 games
7,240
Oct 2026
Source: GameDiscoverCo (June 2023–June 2026); October 2026: How to Market a Game data · How to Market a Game
Yes, AI slop. But one thing underdiscussed is I think this is also developers finally learning that Steam Next Fest is a thing. Surprisingly, most games on Steam never participate in this 100% free opportunity to get wishlists.
If I do some crude math here you will see that traditionally only about one-third of games that release on Steam participate in Steam Next Fest. Basically I just count up the number games that participated in one of the 3 next fests and divide it by the number of games released that year. YES I KNOW, many games don’t always take part in Next Fest the same year that they release. But it gives you an idea of the proportion.

Next Fest nearly doubled in 2026, outpacing a projected 41% rise in releases
Demos per Next Fest edition, stacked by year, next to total Steam releases that year
February
June
October
Steam releases
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
February 2024: 1,123 demos
1,123
June 2024: 1,805 demos
1,805
October 2024: 3,008 demos
3,008
5,936
2024: 17,669 Steam releases
17,669
2024
February 2025: 2,337 demos
2,337
June 2025: 2,645 demos
2,645
October 2025: 2,963 demos
2,963
7,945
2025: 20,801 Steam releases
20,801
2025
February 2026: 3,536 demos
3,536
June 2026: 4,382 demos
4,382
October 2026: 7,240 demos
7,240
15,158
2026: 29,300 Steam releases (projected)
29,300 (projected)
2026
*2026 Steam releases are projected. Source: SNF participant counts via GameDiscoverCo (Oct 2026: How to Market a Game data); Steam releases per year as provided · How to Market a Game
Next Fest demos reached half of Steam releases in 2026
Total demos across that year’s Next Fest editions ÷ Steam releases that year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2024: 5,936 / 17,669 = 33.6%
33.6%
2024
5,936 / 17,669
2025: 7,945 / 20,801 = 38.2%
38.2%
2025
7,945 / 20,801
2026: 15,158 / 29,300 = 51.7%
51.7%
2026*
15,158 / 29,300*
*2026 Steam releases are projected. Source: SNF participant counts via GameDiscoverCo (Oct 2026: How to Market a Game data); Steam releases per year as provided · How to Market a Game · A game in several editions counts once per edition.
So now in October 2026 we are seeing the percentage jump from 38% – 51%. Couple thoughts here…
First: Maybe AI slopsters are jumping on the first SNF to test whether their game has “the juice” and will release in 2027. Basically in 2027 we are going to see even MORE games released.
Second: My denominator for 2026 is projected. Typically in October we see 76% of total releases. But maybe in the new AI world that number is going to change so instead of the usual 24% of games releasing betwween now and December 31, we get a late flood. MAYBE we use SNF participation to estimate total releases. If that is true, assuming 38% of games participate in SNF then 38% holds: 15,158 / 0.38 ≈ 39,890 games. Maybe 40,000 games will release in 2026. MAYBE
Who knows… back of the napkin here.
Who is winning this SNF?
I scraped the data for all the games on Steam Next Fest and here are the numbers for the games ranked by their Peak CCU so far. Note the
Metric
Top 25
Ranks 26–50
Ranks 51–100
Everyone else (101+, 6,942)
Peak CCU range
419–20,505
217–418
94–211
0–94
Median followers, 1d before SNF
5,519
3,834
1,605
15
Median followers gained, 7d→1d before SNF
220
200
57
1
Median % growth, 7d→1d before SNF
7.0%
4.0%
4.1%
12.5%
Avg days demo live before SNF
18.8
26.0
26.9
36.6
Is raw wishlists or momentum better?
This is the eternal debate: should you wait wait wait to do SNF so you can build up a huge pile of wishlists. OR, should you keep your game secret and then spring it on the world just before SNF to get a sudden burst of excitement (and wishlists) to trigger the algorithm.
If we do a correlational analysis on the games in this SNF looking at CCU, the numbers are about the same. Slightly better to have a ton of wishlists (aka followers)
Correlation with peak demo CCU
Spearman ρ
Total followers, 1d before
0.55
Follower gain, 7d→1d (raw)
0.52
Follower gain, 7d→1d (%)
−0.13
BUT, the best thing is to have a bunch of wishlists before SNF AND get a ton of wishlists in the weeks before.
But this is early data and based on demo CCU. I will be doing a bunch of analysis with total follower increase after the festival wraps up.
Let’s talk slop
I saw a meme like this on Reddit
.
I scraped the AI disclosures for all games in SNF. I know, most developers are not being 100% honest in their disclosures. All I can say is that I am just reporting on what people disclose. I am just the messenger. I didn’t do a game by game guess to see what was really AI or not. I can’t even tell myself most of the time.
Metric
Top 25
Ranks 26–50
Ranks 51–100
Everyone else (6,942)
AI disclosure
8% (2)
12% (3)
26% (13)
35% (2,427)
So if we assume everyone is being honest here, the AI slop games really are the bottom tier of games. Only 2 games in the top 25 disclosed AI use. Again, maybe top games have more to lose if they reveal AI use and so chose to hide it. Who knows, we just have to trust.
One thought here, I know everyone is afraid of the Needle In A Haystack Simulator problem where their game is stolen and the stolen game gets all the glory. But that is a rare case here. AI Slop games don’t make it to the top on the backs of stolen games.
What are those two games with honest devs in the top 25?
BORE
which said “This game was developed with help from an AI assistant under human direction and review. No content is AI-generated while the game is running.”
Path of the Yaoguai
which said “部分游戏图片由AI生成并修改” with google translating that as “Some game images were generated by AI and subsequently modified.”
What is the most disclosed AI usage
AI disclosures are just free-text boxes that developers can write. So every disclosure is unique. But I used some common keywords and during the data scrape I tried to match them to some broad categories. Based on keywords here are the breakdowns for AI disclosure:
Three in four AI-disclosing games use it for art and visuals
Share of the 2,502 Next Fest games with an AI disclosure, by use type · games can list several
Art / visuals
Art / visuals: 75.7% (1,894)
75.7% (1,894)
Text / localization
Text / localization: 37.7% (943)
37.7% (943)
Audio / voice
Audio / voice: 37.6% (941)
37.6% (941)
Marketing / store page
Marketing / store page: 25.0% (626)
25.0% (626)
Code / dev tools
Code / dev tools: 23.1% (579)
23.1% (579)
Runtime / live generation
Runtime / live generation: 3.0% (76)
3.0% (76)
Substantially AI-built
Substantially AI-built: 0.3% (8)
0.3% (8)
No type specified
No type specified: 8.4% (210)
8.4% (210)
Source: Steam Next Fest October 2026 data, AI disclosure tags · How to Market a Game
Edit: Some folks notified me that Valve does not require code disclosures.
From Steamworks
“We are aware that many modern game development environments have AI powered tools built into them. Efficiency gains through the use of these tools is not the focus of this section.” So it is low because you don’t need to disclose. That 8% is just people proactively saying they used code gen.
Overall, among fans and developers, AI-gen code seems to be the most permissive form of AI use.
In a survey run by GameDiscoverCo
they found:
On the
‘acceptable’
side, the clear winner is coding/programming:
code helper tools like Claude Code had ~239 mentions as acceptable. This was way more than other categories like prototyping & and placeholder assets (119 mentions), and/or tedious or repetitive tasks (101 mentions).
GameDiscoverCo
Who is the sloppiest?
I then took the AI disclosures and cross-refernced them against the opt-in genre pairs. Here are the most and least sloppy genres:
RPG and Strategy games are the top AI disclosed. The least were Platformers. Here is the chart for this.
Half of Strategy RPG, RTS and Tactical RPG games disclose AI; platformers least
Share of games with a Steam AI disclosure by genre → subgenre · 10 highest and 6 lowest pairs with 100+ games
Highest
Lowest
All games: 34.6%
RPG →
Strategy RPG
167
Strategy RPG: 54.5%
54.5%
Strategy →
RTS
141
RTS: 50.4%
50.4%
RPG →
Tactical RPG
114
Tactical RPG: 50.0%
50.0%
Strategy →
Strategy RPG
198
Strategy RPG: 50.0%
50.0%
Strategy →
Turn-Based Strategy
480
Turn-Based Strategy: 47.5%
47.5%
Strategy →
Real Time Tactics
190
Real Time Tactics: 47.4%
47.4%
Strategy →
Card Game
469
Card Game: 46.1%
46.1%
Strategy →
Card Battler
338
Card Battler: 45.6%
45.6%
Simulation →
Life Sim
383
Life Sim: 45.4%
45.4%
RPG →
Party-Based RPG
164
Party-Based RPG: 45.1%
45.1%
Platformer →
Puzzle Platformer
104
Puzzle Platformer: 20.2%
20.2%
Platformer →
3D Platformer
139
3D Platformer: 20.1%
20.1%
Platformer →
2D Platformer
218
2D Platformer: 17.9%
17.9%
Puzzle →
Puzzle Platformer
113
Puzzle Platformer: 17.7%
17.7%
Visual Novel →
Dating Sim
113
Dating Sim: 16.8%
16.8%
Platformer →
Precision Platformer
144
Precision Platformer: 15.3%
15.3%
Source: Steam Next Fest October 2026 data, Steam AI disclosure field · How to Market a Game
The genre pairs are based off the developer “opt-in” genres. When registering for the October Steam Next Fest, Valve added a new feature for developers to specify what genre and sub genres their games belonged to.
If you go to the SNF Genre tab
, you can browse the combinations:
Why are Strategy and RPG games so sloppy?
I think this comes down to Chinese developers being more comfortable with AI use in games, and Chinese developers more likely to make RPG / Strategy games. Here are the top 3 (by CCU) AI disclosed Strategy RPG games. All of them are Chinese studios.
Path of the Yaoguai
General Jeon
.
灵劫变
(Chinese only but that translates to
Transformation of the Spirit Tribulation
)
There are a ton of Three Kingdoms ai generated strategy games out there.
Regardless of AI slop, what are the most popular genres this SNF?
I used the peak CCU count during the first 3 days of SNF and cross referenced it to the opt-in genres. Here are the most popular types of games on Steam:
Action RPG leads under both RPG and Action; platformers trail
Share of demos peaking at 10+ CCU by Steam genre → subgenre · 10 highest and 6 lowest pairs with 100+ games
Highest
Lowest
All demos: 7.6%
RPG →
Action RPG
226
Action RPG: 19.5%
19.5%
Action →
Action RPG
231
Action RPG: 17.3%
17.3%
Adventure →
Crafting
156
Crafting: 16.0%
16.0%
Adventure →
Open World
160
Open World: 13.8%
13.8%
RPG →
JRPG
124
JRPG: 12.9%
12.9%
Strategy →
RTS
138
RTS: 12.3%
12.3%
RPG →
Dungeon Crawler
199
Dungeon Crawler: 12.1%
12.1%
RPG →
Strategy RPG
165
Strategy RPG: 11.5%
11.5%
Simulation →
Life Sim
376
Life Sim: 11.4%
11.4%
Strategy →
City Builder
140
City Builder: 11.4%
11.4%
Puzzle →
Puzzle Platformer
107
Puzzle Platformer: 3.7%
3.7%
Platformer →
3D Platformer
134
3D Platformer: 3.7%
3.7%
Puzzle →
Logic
298
Logic: 3.0%
3.0%
Adventure →
Walking Simulator
192
Walking Simulator: 2.6%
2.6%
Platformer →
2D Platformer
206
2D Platformer: 1.9%
1.9%
Platformer →
Precision Platformer
135
Precision Platformer: 1.5%
1.5%
Source: Steam Next Fest October 2026 data, demo peak CCU Oct 12–21, 2026 · How to Market a Game
So RPG, Strategy, Crafting, Building. Or as I like to say
Crafty-buildy-strategy-simulationy games
(I don’t make this stuff up).
And the lowest in demo CCU? Platformers (I swear, I don’t hate platformers, it’s just that Steam players don’t like them).
People are making slop in the right genres
The interesting thing here is that ai slop games are being made in the most played genres. I wonder if these developers are using AI to also do the genre analysis.
So I’ll do more analysis after SNF ends.
Now I need to go research whether you should give up game development because someone cloned that Needle in a Haystack game and that Drinking with an anime girl game. I promise I will discuss those 2 games that spooked the entire games industry. But please, I will tell you, don’t freak out. Please, just, don’t make any big dumb decisions.
And join the mailing list to be notified when I write my “should you quit game dev because of a haystack
” blog post.
Footnote
“7,240 games in steam next fest” – You will see many articles say 8,000. That is because there was a press preview 2 weeks before and it had 8000 something games there and that is when the reporting on it started. However as is always the case, developers pull their game for a number of reasons. The number I quote here is from scraping the live SNF steam page.
“Games get a
baseline of visibility
” – Many people misinterpret this. Valve does not give every game the SAME VISIBILITY on day 1 and day 2 of SNF. Valve just gives every game the same minimum via randomized front page placement.